Bullish Case: Known: VTOL ~42.6 and mean-reverting. Inferred from the term structure: Helium IV (blue) sits below Market IV (orange) and trends lower into Jan’27, implying options may be paying for more realized vol than likely occurs. The historical return surface shows highest likelihood around modest +10–20% holds. If catalysts (defense/offshore) land into 07/17 or 12/18, a drift toward mid-$40s/low-$50s is plausible.

Bearish Case: Known: downside tail pricing remains—deep OTM puts show far higher IV than calls, signaling hedgers expect sharp selloffs. Inferred from uncertainty-gap: near spot strikes (~40–45), Helium-minus-market isn’t strongly positive, so downside cushion may be limited if realized vol matches market. Calibration: prior calls correctly anticipated mean reversion/down-drift, but the low-$30s crash hasn’t arrived (yet). If SPY risk-off widens, revisiting high-$30s—and possibly low-$30s on an execution miss—becomes credible.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 45%: Range 40–46 by 7/17; term-structure IV keeps declining (Helium
2. 25%: Selloff to 36–40; SPY vol/risk-off rises + VTOL put skew steepens after catalyst disappointment.
3. 20%: Rally to 47–54; defense/offshore win → call IV compresses + smile flattens.
4. 10%: Tail 28–34; contract/ops shock + liquidity breakdown (<35 close) → put IV spikes.

June 24, 2026