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KBH Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: With a focus on innovative building and affordable housing, KBH can capture increased demand despite current volatility. Positive social media sentiment and relative stability highlight its growth potential.



Bearish Case: Persistently high mortgage rates could suppress buyer interest, while potential overvaluation concerns, as reflected in insider trading, might lead to a price decline. The market's flat implied volatility suggests limited upside.



Potential Outcomes: Growth from market recovery (35%), risk from high rates (40%), stable price action (15%), and sudden market shifts (10%).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish short volatility strategy by selling the $65 call and buying the $70 call expiring in ~14 days. This strategy has a 16% potential return with an annualized rate of 81%. Maximize probability with SPY correlation insights.


February 08, 2025


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