Ruto withdrew the Finance Bill following deadly protests 

Evidence

Kenyan President Ruto announced the decision not to sign the Finance Bill after protests ^{[CNN][Tehran Times]}.

Protests centered on opposition to tax hikes proposed in the Finance Bill created to reduce debt as per IMF conditions ^{[Mint Press News][rt.com]}.

Perspectives

Q&A

What were the primary taxes included in the Finance Bill 2024?

The Finance Bill 2024 proposed a 16% VAT on bread, a 5% increase on digital payments, and a 25% excise duty on domestically produced vegetable oil ^{[Mint Press News][CNN]}.

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How did the international community respond?

The international community, including the UN and the US, expressed concern over the violence, urging restraint and condemning the excessive use of force against protesters ^{[WION][New York Times]}.

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Narratives + Biases (?)

The primary narratives from sources like RT and Mint Press News emphasize the IMF's influence on Kenyan fiscal policies as a significant factor in public dissatisfaction ^{[Mint Press News]}. Western sources like the New York Times and NPR maintain a focus on the protests and political reactions, potentially downplaying international financial pressures.

Potential biases could stem from tacit geopolitical positions, framing IMF policies negatively in developing countries, or highlighting systemic state violence to critique Kenya’s governance.

Social Media Perspectives

Opinions on Ruto withdrawing the Finance Bill Following deadly protests are varied.

Many express relief and praise grassroots efforts that led to the withdrawal, appreciating the power of collective action.

Some emphasize that the bill was seen as an unnecessary burden on citizens, particularly on sensitive issues like healthcare.

However, there is an undercurrent of skepticism, with some concerned that the withdrawal is a temporary move and that similar issues will reemerge, maintaining public unease and distrust in governmental actions.

Context

Kenya’s high debt-to-GDP ratio and pressure from IMF to reduce debt have led to social unrest. There's an unresolved tension between economic reform mandates and public welfare.

Takeaway

The Kenyan government's attempt to meet IMF conditions through tax hikes faces severe societal backlash, exposing gaps in governance and economic policy implementation.

Potential Outcomes

High probability: Continued public pressure on Kenyan government to re-evaluate fiscal policies and more transparent dialogues or reforms. President Ruto hinted at engaging with youth, historically a crucial demographic in political movements .

Moderate probability: IMF may reconsider or renegotiate terms with Kenya, adapting to political unrest and ensuring debt repayment aligns with social stability .

Deepen Your Understanding

How can Kenya balance IMF demands with public expectations without exacerbating social inequities?

What historical precedents in Kenya or elsewhere reflect similar outcomes in government fiscal policies leading to protests?

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