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* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.
* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.
The blue line is Helium's historical forecast. The black line is the actual closing price. Full transparency of past predictions. Hover over points for more information. Video Tutorial.
Future Price Cone
The future price cone means the model thinks there is a 80% chance the price will land within the bounds of the cone. A blue cone is neutral, a green cone is bullish, and a red cone is bearish.
Model Correlation
Higher (closer to 1) means a more accurate model and lower (closer to -1) means a less accurate model. This is the Spearman Correlation between model predicted percent change and actual percent change calculated over the last 150 days.
Percent Correct (up or down)
This is the percent of the time our models predicted the correct direction of the price (either up or down) over the last 150 days.
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* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.
Helium Summary:
U.S inflation in April dropped to its lowest point since 2021, with consumer prices increasing at a 4.9% annual rate [Boston Herald].
However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained high at 5.5% [CNN].
This suggests that underlying price pressures persist despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes [Fox Business].
May 15, 2023
Show historical summaries
April 14, 2023:
Inflation in the US cooled in March, with the consumer price index showing an annual increase of 5 percent, down from 6 percent in February [News Facts Network]. However, core inflation, which excludes food and gas prices, remained high [PBS].
Perspectives
Central Bank Perspective
The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes may be starting to show an effect in curbing inflation, albeit slower than desired [CBS]
Market Perspective
Some market participants believe that moderating inflation possibly warrants the Fed ending interest rate hikes [Fox Business]. Others are skeptical and concerned about the stubbornly high core inflation [seekingalpha.com].
Show historical perspectives
April 14, 2023:
Mainstream Perspective
Inflation is cooling but core prices remain stubbornly high, pointing to enduring underlying price pressures [Fortune]
Contrarian Perspective
The downward trend in inflation eases the pressure on the Fed and may lessen the likelihood of further rate hikes [Fox Business].
Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a better gauge of longer-term inflation trends [The Guardian]. How are the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes affecting inflation?
While headline inflation has cooled, Core inflation remains high, suggesting that the impact of the rate hikes on underlying price pressures is unclear [Fox Business].
The selected headlines, from sources such as Fox Business, CNN, and The Guardian, provide a range of perspectives on the inflation issue, generally agreeing on the fact that headline inflation has cooled but underlying pressures remain.
The different sources highlight various implications for the Federal Reserve and the overall economy.
The perspectives presented provide a comprehensive understanding of the issue.
Context
The slowdown in headline inflation may be affected by several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and fluctuations in energy and commodity prices. It is important to consider these contextual factors when analyzing the overall inflation picture.
Takeaway
While headline inflation cooled in April, Core inflation remains high, indicating continued underlying price pressures and uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes.
Potential Outcomes
1. Headline and core inflation continue to drop, leading the Federal Reserve to end interest rate hikes (probability: moderate)
2. Core inflation remains persistently high, prompting further rate hikes or alternative monetary policy (probability: moderate)
* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy
of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions,
you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.
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