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TWO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Positive exposure to interest rate changes and the successful diversification of assets bolster potential gains. The historical return surface shows promising areas for bullish potential.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and uncertainty in the market create risk for further declines, particularly with ongoing challenges in spread management.



Potential Outcomes: Potential outcomes include a mild recovery in price due to undervaluation (40%), flat performance amid economic stress (30%), or further decline from volatility (30%).



Trading Oracle:
Exploit high volatility by using the Bearish Long Volatility strategy. This utilizes buying OOTM put options to capture potential downward moves while managing risk. With the market uncertainty reflected in the implied volatility surfaces, this strategy aligns with the current economic landscape.


April 15, 2025


Two Harbors Investment Forecast

TWO        Two Harbors Investment

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TWO


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (0.75)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (0.74)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.72)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (0.72)


KLAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KLAC  KLA (0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TWO


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.01)


IMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMO  Imperial Oil (0.01)


RACE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RACE  Ferrari (0.01)


CODI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CODI  Compass Diversified (-0.02)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TWO


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.58)


CF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CF  CF Industries (-0.59)


MTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTZ  Mastec (-0.6)


MMYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MMYT  MakeMyTrip (-0.61)


CALM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALM  Cal-Maine Foods (-0.68)







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