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🔵   What Would Be Worse Than a Recession?

Politics

When Donald Trump took office in January, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that the economy had a 15 percent chance of entering a recession over the next 12 months. Today, with the world engulfed in a trade war, they see a 45 percent chance. J.P. Morgan puts the risk at 60 percent. Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, a private-equity firm, believes that a contraction is pretty much guaranteed. The situation is unprecedented, at least in modern history. The last time the White House proactively tanked the economy—under the leadership of Andrew Jackson, who gutted the Second Bank and demanded payment for public lands in gold or silver—slavery was legal.

The Atlantic     Apr 25, 2025