US-China stablecoin regulations and conflicts. 

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/07/31/pass-the-stablecoin-bill-now/
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/07/31/pass-the-stablecoin-bill-now/

Helium Summary: The US has a potential opportunity to regulate Stablecoins, unlike current offshore assets with low transparency and no oversight [Coin Desk].

Meanwhile, numerous concerns are escalating regarding potential military conflicts between the US and China, specifically over Taiwan [Unz][WION (Opinion)].

China's potential to disrupt Taiwan's energy comes into focus [Foreign Policy], as Pakistan looks to both US and China for stability amid growing regional threats [Newsweek].


August 12, 2023


Perspectives

US Perspective


The US seeks to define boundaries in the digital currency landscape, leveraging regulatory oversight to protect consumers and maintain the dollar's dominance [Coin Desk]. In foreign affairs, it views China as a military and economic threat [Alternet][WION (Opinion)]

China Perspective


China sees the US's actions as threatening its sovereignty, specifically concerning Taiwan [Unz]. In terms of economic power, China is looking at becoming the world's number one economy, challenging US dominance [Alternet]

Taiwan Perspective


Taiwan sits at the crux of the conflict between China and the US, potentially becoming a major flashpoint in the escalating geopolitical tensions [Unz].


Relevant Trades

[DIA] SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average

[EEM] BTC iShares MSCI Emerging

[EWT] iShares MSCI Taiwan

[FXI] BTC iShares China

[GXC] Active Trust - SPDR S&P China

[MCHI] BTC iShares MSCI China

[SPY] SPDR S&P 500

[VWO] Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets


Q&A


What might be the implications of the US passing the Stablecoin regulation bill?

It could provide clarity around the use of blockchain-based fiat representations and protect consumers from potential fraud [Coin Desk].

What is driving the escalating tensions between the US and China?

Diverging military, economic, and political interests, specifically those around Taiwan's sovereignty and China's increasing economic power, are causing the tensions [Alternet][Unz][Newsweek][WION (Opinion)].


News Media Bias (?)


Coin Desk gives a pro-regulation view favoring US intervention in stablecoins [Coin Desk].

Sites like Alternet and Unz present more anti-US positions, criticizing its tactics against China [Alternet][Unz].


Context


The growth of cryptocurrency and increasing geopolitical tension between predatory superpowers are intersecting, in a possible culmination that could shape global economic and political landscapes.


Takeaway


As the US moves to regulate crypto, the escalating tensions between the US and China foreshadow potential economic and military conflicts, with Taiwan at the crux.


Potential Outcomes



1. US passes Stablecoin bill, providing clear regulations (60% likely).

2. Escalating tensions lead to military conflict between US and China (30% likely).

3. Peaceful negotiations defuse tensions (10% likely).



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