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ACA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ACA's backwardation in the term structure implies near-term volatility and potential upward price movements. Historical returns support growth, and social sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

Bearish Case: Elevated put volumes and backwardation signal uncertainty and possible downside. Market volatility, regulatory changes, and healthcare policies pose risks to ACA.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of moderate gains driven by sustainable practices.
30% risk of declines from regulatory pressures.
20% sideways movement due to mixed signals and political factors.

July 11, 2025

Arcosa Forecast

ACA Arcosa

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ACA

VB Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.95)

KKR KKR (0.92)

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.92)

MIDU Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares (0.9)

RF Regions Financial (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACA

BAX Baxter International (-0.01)

FNF Fidelity National Financial (-0.03)

STM New York Shares (0.03)

LI Li Auto (-0.04)

RACE Ferrari (0.05)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACA

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.44)

FNV Franco-Nevada (-0.5)

STNE StoneCo (-0.5)

GFI Gold Fields (-0.54)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.61)

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Market Forecasts

Bullish / Bearish

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Trading Strategies

Long Volatility

Short Volatility

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