ACA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ACA's diversified infrastructure and positive sentiment suggest robust growth potential. Historical returns showcase significant upside, and the current backwardation in volatility could indicate market undervaluation, supporting future gains.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and elevated put volumes reflect market uncertainty. The potential expiry of ACA-related tax credits could generate negative investor sentiment, adding downside risk amidst political uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% Chance: Modest gains driven by infrastructure expansion and favorable sentiment.
  • 35% Chance: Downside due to political influences and credit expirations.
  • 25% Chance: Sideways movement amid mixed economic signals.




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January 16, 2025


Arcosa Forecast

ACA        Arcosa











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UDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDOW  ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACA



APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (0.0)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.01)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (-0.01)


AEHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEHR  Aehr Test Systems (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACA



LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.76)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.77)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.78)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.78)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)









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