ADBE Forecast


Bullish Case: Adobe's product innovations, particularly its AI advancements, are likely to spur user growth and revenue. The historical returns show a strong likelihood of significant positive returns over long holding periods.


Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges, notably concerning the Figma acquisition, pose a threat. With the options term structure in backwardation, investors might expect significant price volatility soon.


Potential Outcomes:

1. AI capabilities boost user base (50%).

2. Regulatory barriers hinder growth (25%).

3. Heightened competition impacts market share (15%).

4. Insider selling dampens investor sentiment (10%).


Trading Oracle: Consider a short-term bullish credit spread due to high call option volume and current mean-reverting price action. Sell the $550 put and buy the $545 put expiring in 7 days. Expect reduced volatility post-earnings with a high-reward/risk ratio and significant profit potential.


June 27, 2024


Adobe Forecast

ADBE      Adobe











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