RACE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Ferrari's current pricing power and strong order backlog indicate robust sales potential, especially with new model launches and continued success in F1. Implied volatility trends suggest reduced risk, signaling favorable market sentiment toward RACE.


Bearish Case: Challenges from rival EV manufacturers and potential reputational risks could impact Ferrariā€™s market share. High implied volatility indicates market concerns, suggesting potential for price declines if F1 performance lags behind expectations.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong earnings report boosting share price (40%).

2. Major competitive setbacks from EV rivals leading to a price drop (35%).

3. Continued success in F1 driving demand for new models (20%).

4. Major PR incident negatively impacting brand (5%).


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy using a debit spread by buying $420 strike calls expiring in 30 days and selling $430 strike calls. With the current bullish risk sentiment and moderately stable implied volatility, this approach minimizes risk while maximizing potential upside from anticipated market moves.


July 25, 2024


Ferrari Forecast

RACE      Ferrari











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RACE



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CVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVS  CVS Health (0.0)


AMRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMRK  A-Mark Precious Metals (-0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RACE



WW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WW  WW International (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.9)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.91)


TECS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECS  Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)





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