Bullish Case: With a stable demand for electric vehicles and strategic partnerships in the pipeline, ALSN's strong financials and consistent dividend payouts make for an optimistic outlook in 2025.

Bearish Case: However, the high price-to-book ratio, increased competition in electric transmission, and potential labor issues could lead to short-term price pressures and volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of price rise to $120 due to strong Q4 earnings and product innovations.
• 20% chance for a drop to $90 due to labor disputes affecting production.
• 15% chance of trading sideways around $107 amidst overall market volatility.
• 35% chance of further declines to $95 reflecting an industry-wide downturn.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish strategy using a put spread: Buy the ALSN 100.00 put and sell the 95.00 put, targeting scenarios where price retraces below $100, benefiting from elevated implied volatility. Given the market's mixed sentiment, this balances risk while capitalizing on downside protection.

December 20, 2024