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AP Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AP's restructuring and potential market growth could lead to a recovery. Historical returns show possible long-term gains.



Bearish Case: High volatility and negative sentiment suggest downside risks. Uncertain macroeconomic conditions might impede recovery.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 70% chance: Price stabilization around $2.5.
  • 20% chance: Downtrend below $2 due to negative sentiment.
  • 10% chance: Rebound over $3 if market conditions improve.



Trading Oracle: Implement a 2.50/5.00 bear call spread for June 2025 expiry. Utilize high implied volatility to enhance profit potential and minimize risk exposure. The focus should be on limited downside risk to capture stabilization trends, offering a favorable reward-to-risk ratio with a bearish stance.


January 11, 2025


Ampco-Pittsburgh Forecast

AP        Ampco-Pittsburgh

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