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XLF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: XLF's strong historical returns and 83% bullish skew suggest potential for gains. Low volatility provides a favorable environment for upward movement.



Bearish Case: High IV and recent flat price action signal potential downside risk, amplified by economic uncertainties and negative macro sentiment.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued upside (40% chance) given bullish sentiment;

2) Sideways movement (30%) due to flat term structure;

3) Downward trend (30%) from global uncertainties.



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June 21, 2025


Financial Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLF        Financial Select Sector SPDR

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLF


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.95)


BYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYD  Boyd Gaming (0.94)


RCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCL  Royal Caribbean (0.94)


SYK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYK  Stryker (0.93)


BMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMO  Bank of Montreal (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLF


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.0)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (-0.0)


TTD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTD  Trade Desk (-0.0)


NGG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGG  National Grid (-0.01)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLF


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.69)


KHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KHC  Kraft Heinz (-0.73)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.75)


CAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAG  Conagra Brands (-0.78)


SPXU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXU  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.88)







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