ASAN Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Asana has shown robust revenue growth of 26% YoY and strong insider buying indicated by CEO Moskovitz's share acquisitions. With upcoming earnings and a favorable implied volatility trend, there’s potential for price appreciation.




Bearish Case: Despite positive earnings growth, ASAN remains 82% below its 2021 peak with sustained profitability challenges and heightened market skepticism, suggesting further declines could occur amid volatility.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance of sustained revenue growth from Q2 results;

2. 30% probability of further decline due to profitability issues;

3. 15% chance of high volatility prompted by mixed macro signals.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: Buy December $15 call options and sell January $20 calls. This targets upside potential within the predicted volatility range and maximizes gains while limiting risks, leveraging a positive edge in options sentiment.



November 13, 2024










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HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.9)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ASAN



IQV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IQV  IQVIA (-0.0)


WCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WCC  Wesco International (0.0)


SFIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFIX  Stitch Fix (0.0)


LMND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LMND  Lemonade (0.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ASAN



NGD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGD  New Gold (-0.86)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (-0.86)


RTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RTX  Raytheon (-0.86)


NEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEE  NextEra Energy (-0.87)


IDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDR  Idaho Strategic Resources (-0.87)









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