OII Forecast


Bullish Case: OII's strong historical returns, particularly over extended holding periods, combined with potential institutional buybacks and revenue growth in subsea solutions, supports a favorable outlook. Investor sentiment is leaning bullish, indicated by high call option activity.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests market uncertainty, while insider selling and recent earnings misses could indicate weaker performance. A macroeconomic downturn could impact demand for OII's services, leading to further price pressures.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Sustained revenue growth (30% probability).
2. Moderate revenue growth (50% probability).
3. Revenue decline (20% probability).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long-dated call spread (buy Jan 2025 $22.50 Call, sell Jan 2025 $25 Call) to capitalize on high implied volatility while managing risk. With potential upside and reduced premium decay, this setup captures price recovery towards the $25 region.


July 24, 2024


Oceaneering International Forecast

OII      Oceaneering International











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OII



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.08)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OII



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.08)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.75)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OII



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.08)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)





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