Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Positive resolution of the recent labor strike and increased aircraft demand following favorable agreements could drive Boeing's stock upward, offsetting past quality concerns.

Bearish Case: Continued production delays and regulatory scrutiny due to historical quality issues pose significant risks to Boeing's recovery, potentially leading to further stock declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful union agreement leading to stock rally (60%);

2. Ongoing production issues impacting deliveries (70%);

3. Increased demand from military contracts boosting growth (50%).

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying BA $145 calls and selling $150 calls, targeting the upcoming labor agreement. High implied volatility suggests potential upside, providing an attractive risk/reward profile. With positive market sentiment around BA, this trade can maximize returns if shares rise post-negotiation.

November 17, 2024