Bullish Case: BND exhibits a long-term trend of stable or increasing returns with strong institutional support, suggesting persistent demand and a likelihood of rebounding from current historical underperformance.


Bearish Case: Persistent declines over the last 10 years, coupled with recent flattening price action, signal potential for continued underperformance as market conditions remain uncertain.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive economic data leads to a rally (20% probability).

2. Status quo with flat returns continues (50% probability).

3. Increase in interest rates results in a further decline (30% probability).


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April 02, 2024


Vanguard Total Bond Market Forecast

BND        Vanguard Total Bond Market
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with BND



MBB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MBB  BTC iShares MBS (0.98)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (0.95)


IGLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGLB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond (0.95)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (0.9)


NGG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGG  National Grid (0.89)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to BND



CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.0)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (-0.0)


PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (-0.0)


JBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBT  John Bean (0.0)


LIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LIN  Linde (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against BND



CNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNX  CNX Resources (-0.71)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.72)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.73)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.85)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.92)





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