BND Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Economic recovery signals, potential interest rate stabilization, and declining inflation expectations could revive investor interest in bonds, driving BND prices upwards. Recent institutional buying trends affirm confidence in future stability.




Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation, potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, and ongoing economic uncertainties could significantly pressure BND prices downward. Historical returns indicate a substantial likelihood of negative performance amid such macroeconomic challenges.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery boosts BND (+40%);

2. Continued interest rate hikes depress BND (-30%);

3. Market stability leads to flat performance (30%). These outcomes reflect historical trends and current market conditions.




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October 20, 2024


Vanguard Total Bond Market Forecast

BND        Vanguard Total Bond Market











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BND



IEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEI  BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.99)


TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.98)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (0.97)


BLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Bond (0.97)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BND



MGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGM  MGM Resorts International (-0.0)


BBIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBIO  BridgeBio Pharma (0.0)


WSC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WSC  WillScot Mobile Mini (-0.0)


LSPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSPD  Lightspeed Commerce Inc (Sub Voting) (-0.0)


GBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GBX  Greenbrier Cos. (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BND



CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.79)


HAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAL  Halliburton (-0.79)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.93)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.98)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)









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