TMDX Forecast


Bullish Case: TMDX has a robust growth trajectory with a 55% yoy growth. Innovations in organ care and expanding market potential, lower Helium volatility vs. market volatility, and a bullish AI forecast (+1.61%) support continued upside.


Bearish Case: Excessive insider selling, high volatility, potential integration issues, and a risk of price correction due to value trap concerns suggest caution. The historical correlation between realized price and AI forecast (-0.1) adds skepticism.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued revenue growth (60%),

2) Price correction due to valuation concerns (25%),

3) Market share loss to competitors (15%). Historical patterns, insider sales, and market conditions informed these probabilities.


Trading Oracle: Trade October 2024 call debit spreads favoring the $150 strike. This targets the bullish case while hedging against downside risk. Leverage TMDX’s favorable Helium implied volatility vs. market, aligning with bullish AI forecasts and anticipated revenue growth.


July 16, 2024


Transmedics Forecast

TMDX      Transmedics











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TMDX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.87)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TMDX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.87)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TMDX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.87)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)





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