CG Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Carlyle Group shows potential for growth driven by strategic acquisitions and positive market sentiment, evidenced by higher implied volatility in near-term options, suggesting increased investor confidence in upcoming performance.




Bearish Case: Ongoing market volatility and potential antitrust issues could impact performance negatively, as suggested by a declining trend in both historical returns and market volatility levels, indicating a bearish market outlook.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful acquisition integration with a 70% chance.

2. Ongoing market volatility harming performance, at 20%.

3. Antitrust issues surfacing with a 10% probability, posing significant risk.




Trading Oracle: Consider an options strategy selling a $45 put and buying a $42.5 put expiring in 14 days; benefits from current elevated implied volatility with a 63% probability of profit. Balance risk through limited downside exposure and capitalize on potential price recovery. Favor short volatility.



November 03, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CG



OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.82)


TRMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRMB  Trimble (0.81)


SUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUM  Summit Materials (0.81)


STLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STLD  Steel Dynamics (0.8)


MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CG



PATH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PATH  UiPath (0.0)


LH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LH  Laboratory Corp. Of America (-0.0)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.0)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (0.0)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CG



FLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNG  Flex Lng (-0.59)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.59)


EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.6)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.63)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.64)









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