Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Carlyle's strategic investments, including the Captrust deal and the Katy Perry partnership, can drive growth, evidenced by rising implied volatility and recent positive price trends.

Bearish Case: Market skepticism is reflected in low trading volumes and potential challenges from the Jagex sale, indicating risk of further price stagnation or decline.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Jagex sale leads to significant capital influx (50% chance).
2. Continued market volatility restricts investment growth (30% chance).
3. Successful integration of strategic partnerships enhances growth potential (15% chance).
4. Negative market sentiment drives CG shares lower (5% chance).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying $55 calls and selling $57.50 calls, expiring in 51 days. This capitalizes on implied volatility disparities while ensuring higher potential returns. Market odds of profit are robust at 78%, with a favorable risk-reward ratio conducive to capitalizing on anticipated upward price movement.

November 29, 2024