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CG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Carlyle's strategic acquisitions, such as Kaonavi, position it for future growth. Despite stagnant prices, elevated call volumes suggest potential investor optimism.



Bearish Case: The flat recent price action and low trading volumes indicate persistent market skepticism, compounded by declining fee growth and economic concerns, which may limit short-term growth.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Successful acquisition integrations lead to moderate growth (40%).
  2. Ongoing economic challenges cap growth (35%).
  3. Positive earnings surprise boosts sentiment (15%).
  4. Antitrust issues impede acquisitions (10%).



Trading Oracle: Implement a Bullish Short Volatility strategy by selling ATM put options and buying more OOTM puts. This leverages low volatility and potential upside while managing downside risk.


March 11, 2025











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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CG


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ASC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASC  Ardmore Shipping (-0.75)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.8)







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