CG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Carlyle's diversified strategies and recent investments in tech and pharmaceuticals suggest resilience and growth potential despite market uncertainties.




Bearish Case: High put volume and potential economic headwinds suggest skepticism and downside risk, with volatility discrepancies indicating investor caution.




Potential Outcomes: Jagex sale success (45%); market challenges reducing returns (30%); strategic investments drive moderate growth (20%); geopolitical risks affect performance (5%).




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying $50 calls and selling $55 calls expiring in 77 days. This leverages current implied volatility, offering a positive edge with a high reward-to-risk ratio.



January 05, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CG



OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.84)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.77)


COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.75)


LYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYV  Live Nation Entertainment (0.72)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CG



FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.0)


BMEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMEA  Biomea Fusion (0.01)


LWLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LWLG  Lightwave Logic (-0.01)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (0.01)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CG



NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.55)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.56)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.61)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.64)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.65)









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