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CHDN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CHDN's continued expansion and strategic partnerships, combined with controlled implied volatility, support potential growth.

Bearish Case: Persistent safety issues and high P/B ratio may lead to regulatory challenges, affecting revenue and investor sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful new venue expansions (60%).

2. Continued safety controversies (30%).

3. Regulatory cost increases (10%).

Trading Oracle: Deploy a bull call spread, buying CHDN March '25 120 Calls and selling 125 Calls. Implied volatility suggests a 26.36% chance of benefit, with a short-term outlook maximizing return and minimizing risks.

February 22, 2025

Churchill Downs Forecast

CHDN Churchill Downs

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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EXR Extra Space Storage (0.72)

PSFE Paysafe Limited (0.71)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CHDN

BYRN Byrna (0.0)

CQP Cheniere Energy (0.01)

EH EHang Holdings Ltd - (0.01)

CRON Cronos (0.01)

MCD McDonald's (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CHDN

HTZ Hertz Global Holdings (-0.62)

ABCL AbCellera Biologics (-0.64)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.67)

CRNC Cerence (-0.68)

PBPB Potbelly (-0.68)

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