VTI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: VTI's implied volatility shows flat structure, suggesting stability, while historical returns indicate a 2% positive expectation over holding years, supported by favorable market conditions and high bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Implied volatility is persistently low, indicating potential market complacency. Historical returns reveal a 15% chance of significant downturns, heightening risks from potential economic disruptions and diminishing investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth (50% chance) driven by market resilience.

2. Short-term stagnation (30% chance) as volatility remains low.

3. Significant correction (<20% chance) possibly due to macroeconomic shocks affecting market stability.


Trading Oracle: Leverage recent bullish skew: implement a debit spread strategy by buying VTI call options at 275 ($1.3) and selling at 285 ($0.15) for August expiry. This captures upward movement with low capital outlay, balanced risk, and potential exponential gain.


July 25, 2024


Vanguard Total Stock Market Forecast

VTI      Vanguard Total Stock Market











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VTI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VTI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VTI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)


VTI News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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