ODP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: ODP's diverse business lines, positive Helium AI forecast, and stable implied volatility indicate resilience and potential room for growth despite recent price declines.


Bearish Case: ODP's historical mean reversion, elevated volatility risk, and recent significant price drop indicate potential further downside. Elevated bearish sentiment could exacerbate declines.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance ODP remains stagnant due to mean reversion. 30% chance for volatile swings driven by macroeconomic developments. 20% chance for gradual uptrend on positive internal developments.


Trading Oracle: Deploying bull put spreads targeting September 2024 expiry captures potential recovery while limiting risk. Buy $35 puts, sell $40 puts. Balances high reward:risk profile with positive edge from AI bullish bias and market's current undervaluation.


June 30, 2024


ODP Forecast

ODP      ODP











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ODP



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.27)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.27)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ODP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.07)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.27)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.32)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ODP



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.27)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.27)





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