DUST Forecast


Bullish Case: DUST implied volatility indicates potential mean reversion; recent positive sentiment from increased options volume and relatively low strike prices, such as July 26, 2024, 6.50 Call options, suggest short-term gains are possible.


Bearish Case: High historical volatility and mean-reverting nature of DUST, combined with steep term structure volatility beyond short-term windows, indicate heavy downside risk and potential significant price drops.


Potential Outcomes: High volatility persists (70%), large price swings highly probable; mean reversion likely dictates short-term fluctuations (50%) with elevated downside risk due to historical patterns and recent option activity.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish short volatility strategy targeting high implied volatility pockets. Sell DUST call spreads expiring in 30-45 days, such as August 2024 series, to capitalize on high IV and mean reversion, with favorable risk-reward ratios.


July 20, 2024


Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X S Forecast

DUST      Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X S











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DUST



SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (0.8)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (0.79)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (0.79)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.77)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DUST



EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.0)


DE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DE  Deere (0.0)


GPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPC  Genuine Parts (-0.01)


FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (-0.01)


SMAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMAR  Smartsheet (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DUST



SILJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SILJ  ETF Managers Group LLC - ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners (-0.93)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.94)


SIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIL  Global X Funds - Global X Silver Miners (-0.95)


CDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDE  Coeur Mining (-0.95)


GDXJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDXJ  VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (-0.97)





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