FNV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: FNV's consistent mean-reverting behavior and promising long-term growth metrics bolster a bullish outlook. Current low implied volatility supports near-term upside potential.


Bearish Case: FNV's high sensitivity to market conditions and consistent trading volume favoring puts indicates potential downside risks. Broader market volatility could sharply impact its performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. FNV stabilizes and rebounds (~50%).

2. Continues moderate decline (~30%).

3. Significant dip below $120 if market falters (~20%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish short-volatility trade based on mean reversion. Opt for a put credit spread: sell 1 $120 put, buy 1 $115 put, expiring in ~36 days. This leverages low implied volatility and stability, providing high reward:risk with a 72% probability-of-profit.


July 18, 2024


Franco-Nevada Forecast

FNV      Franco-Nevada











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FNV



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FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (0.03)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FNV



HD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HD  Home Depot (-0.59)


SAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVA  Cassava Sciences (-0.63)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (-0.7)


PFGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PFGC  Performance Food (-0.7)


FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FL  Foot Locker (-0.71)





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