HAS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Hasbro's strong focus on digital transformation and new product initiatives, like the Monopoly Go board game, are poised to reignite growth momentum. Increased engagement from nostalgic brands alongside low implied volatility suggests a rebound potential.


Bearish Case: Persistent industry-wide declines, reflected in historical price returns and weak trading volumes, could result in further underperformance for Hasbro. Legal uncertainties and operational inefficiencies may weigh heavily as earnings expectations diminish.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive response to Monopoly Go relaunch (60%).

2. Continued declines from weaker-than-expected sales (50%).

3. Successful navigation of legal challenges enhancing market confidence (40%).

4. Operational restructuring improves margins but takes time (30%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish strategy using a short put spread. Sell 1 $55 put (IV 54.2%) and buy 2 $50 puts (IV 52.7%). This has a profit potential given high implied volatility and an 81% chance of profitability in the near term, hedging downside effectively.


July 24, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HAS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.03)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HAS



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.03)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.06)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.18)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HAS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.03)





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