Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: EBAY continues to enhance user experience through technological advancements, potentially increasing engagement and revenue amidst market volatility. Furthermore, a recent increase in unique offerings keeps consumer interest high, suggesting a positive momentum in sales.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and potential financial penalties pose significant risks to EBAY's profitability and reputation. Additionally, seasonal pressures and recent drops in stock price may deter investors, signaling a bearish outlook.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued tech improvements lead to 60% user growth (40% probability).

2. Legal fines significantly impact profit margins (30% probability).

3. Unique collectibles boost platform traffic and sales (20% probability).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy by employing a short put spread: sell 1 $60 strike put and buy 2 $58 strike puts, capturing premium while minimizing downside risk. The potential annualized return is approximately 19% with a profit probability around 78%. Maintain a close watch on regulatory updates for adjustments.

November 17, 2024