Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: eBay's AI enhancements and product offerings suggest improved user engagement, driving revenue growth and stock performance. Positive market sentiment supported by increasing call volumes hints at potential price spikes.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and flat recent performance indicate financial uncertainties, which could erode investor confidence. The potential for significant penalties from lawsuits poses additional downward risk to the stock price.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive earnings surprise boosting user growth (40% chance).
• Legal challenges lead to significant fines impacting profitability (35% chance).
• Market stabilizes without substantial changes (15% chance).
• Increased competition further erodes market share (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the January 2025 $65 calls and selling the $67 calls. This capitalizes on an anticipated price increase while placing a marginal risk caps on potential losses. High implied volatility currently favors this strategy, aiming for a significant return with minimal exposure during near-term fluctuation.

December 13, 2024