SMG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SMG's strategic pivot to retail media, especially with Home Depot, could bolster sales and drive brand recognition. The 2024 term structure highlights stable implied volatility, suggesting moderate growth potential.


Bearish Case: Persistent market skepticism, historical underperformance, and declining long-term prices indicate potential for continued downward pressure. Elevated implied volatility in 2024 might signal upcoming negative price movements.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of modest price recovery driven by retail media strategies, 30% probability of price stagnation, 10% likelihood of decline due to historical weaknesses.


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May 28, 2024


Scotts Miracle-Gro Forecast

SMG      Scotts Miracle-Gro











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMG



LPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LPX  Louisiana-Pacific (0.91)


PUBM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PUBM  PubMatic (0.9)


SPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPR  Spirit Aerosystems (0.89)


EMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMN  Eastman Chemical (0.88)


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFS  Discover Financial Services (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMG



TRUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRUP  Trupanion (-0.0)


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGNY  Progyny (0.01)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (0.01)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.01)


EXAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXAI  Exscientia (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMG



SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.72)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.81)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.82)





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