SMG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SMG's investment in retail media, strategic alliance with Home Depot, and Helium's +0.81% bullish forecast signal moderate near-term growth, supported by improvement in overall brand health and sales lift metrics.


Bearish Case: Lawsuits, insider selling, and significant declining long-term performance present substantial risks. The class-action lawsuit on oversupply issues and historical underperformance align with current bearish pressures.


Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of moderate recovery, driven by retail media investments; 30% chance of decline due to litigation and market skepticism; 30% chance of stagnation owing to mixed investor sentiment and flat term structure.


Trading Oracle: Trade SMG bearish short volatility using credit spreads. Sell $70 strike call, buy $75 strike call expiring in 21 days. This captures time decay and exploits the current implied volatility disadvantage, capitalizing on Helium's edge with a strong probability of profit.


June 30, 2024


Scotts Miracle-Gro Forecast

SMG      Scotts Miracle-Gro











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMG



PUBM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PUBM  PubMatic (0.91)


LPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LPX  Louisiana-Pacific (0.91)


EMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMN  Eastman Chemical (0.88)


SPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPR  Spirit Aerosystems (0.88)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMG



CWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEB  Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (-0.0)


AGCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGCO  AGCO (-0.0)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (0.0)


WMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMG  Warner Music (0.0)


REXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REXR  Rexford Industrial Realty (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMG



SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.8)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.81)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.82)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.82)


SMG News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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