ESCA Forecast


Bullish Case: Demand normalization and margins improvement position ESCA for potential gains. Stable summer sports demand and high-income demographic resilience support growth narratives.


Bearish Case: High volatility suggests instability. Lower correlation with Helium AI forecasts and quality issues in new models are concerns. Economic downturns may impact demand negatively despite higher-income targets.


Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of positive consumer reception of electric Escalade boosting price. 30% chance high pricing deters buyers, reducing sales. 35% status quo with steady performance.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a 3-4 month bearish stance with credit spreads (short volatility). Sell high implied volatility calls like $12.50 and $15.00 strikes expiring in October 2024. Supports a high edge and superb reward:risk ratio.


July 17, 2024


Escalade Forecast

ESCA      Escalade











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ESCA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESCA



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESCA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.81)





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