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AI FEP Forecast

Bullish Case: FEP shows positive historical returns, particularly beyond one year, supported by bullish market sentiment and upcoming European political stability, which could drive prices up significantly.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates potential market distress, with geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors possibly leading to price corrections and investor caution in the near term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of +10% returns due to improving market conditions.

2. 30% chance of -10% returns driven by volatility.

3. 30% chance of stagnation as markets stabilize.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying the 39.00 call and selling the 40.00 call for April 2025 expiry. This strategy capitalizes on favorable market conditions with low downside risk while maintaining high reward potential.

August 22, 2024

First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Europe AlphaDEX Forecast

FEP First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Europe AlphaDEX

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FEP

EFA BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (0.98)

XYL Xylem (0.96)

DB Deutsche (0.95)

QCOM Qualcomm (0.95)

BAC Bank Of America (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FEP

EH EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.0)

CWEB Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (-0.0)

FIZZ National Beverage (0.01)

NOC Northrop Grumman (-0.01)

KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FEP

SRTY ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.89)

FWRD Forward Air (-0.89)

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.9)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)

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