GEL Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: A rising energy demand and strong offshore pipeline revenues could lead to a rebound in GEL prices, targeting levels beyond $15 within six months based on positive historical returns which favor long positioning.




Bearish Case: Weak soda ash pricing and persistent market volatility may hinder GEL's recovery, potentially pushing prices below $10, especially with current market sentiment pointing towards cautious pessimism.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Positive earnings report leading to a 30% price increase (40% chance)
  • Continued soda ash weakness, leading to stagnation around $10 (30% chance)
  • Market recovery boosts GEL past $15 due to enhanced pipeline margins (20% chance)
  • Geopolitical instability affects offshore project funding, driving prices below $9 (10% chance)




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December 19, 2024


Genesis Energy Forecast

GEL        Genesis Energy











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