GEL Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong offshore pipeline revenue, potential soda ash demand boost, and low volatility signal favorable conditions for growth.




Bearish Case: High implied volatilities and flat recent price action suggest market skepticism and potential downside risks.




Potential Outcomes:
1. Offshore pipeline revenue >$500M (70%).

2. Stable soda ash prices (50%).

3. Market volatility drives GEL below $10 (30%).



March 29, 2025


Genesis Energy Forecast

GEL        Genesis Energy











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Assets that tend to move strongly with GEL



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OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (0.76)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.7)


NXPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NXPI  NXP Semiconductors (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GEL



PTGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTGX  Protagonist Therapeutics (0.0)


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (-0.01)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.01)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.01)


PRU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRU  Prudential Financial (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GEL



HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.73)


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.73)


SHAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHAK  Shake Shack (-0.73)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.76)


AAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAL  American Airlines (-0.8)









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