SHEL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SHEL's strong implied volatility signals bullish sentiment, with historical trends indicating potential price gains. Market fundamentals and favorable analyst ratings support upward momentum.


Bearish Case: Current low trading volume and high implied volatility suggest imminent risks. Potential geopolitical and market uncertainties could lead to price downturns, negatively affecting investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance SHEL hits $75 by September 2024.

2. 30% probability for a decline to $67 amidst volatility spikes.

3. 20% likelihood that stability around $71 persists.

4. 10% probability of drastic market fluctuations due to external events.


Trading Oracle: Deploy bullish debit spreads using SHEL options for a high probability of profit. Target short legs at $70, long legs at $75, capitalizing on upcoming earnings and favorable trends. Given low volatility expectations beyond August, this strategy leverages potential upside while minimizing risk.


July 25, 2024


Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) Forecast

SHEL      Shell Plc - ADR (Representing)











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Assets that tend to move strongly with SHEL



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FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.88)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.85)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.82)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SHEL



IPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IPI  Intrepid Potash (-0.0)


NCLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NCLH  Norwegian Cruise Line (0.0)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.0)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.0)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SHEL



COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (-0.82)


ABCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABCL  AbCellera Biologics (-0.83)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.85)


INMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INMD  Inmode (-0.85)


PZZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PZZA  Papa John's International (-0.86)





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