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MP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MP Materials sees robust demand for EV components. Recent market backwardation stabilizes volatility, suggesting near-term growth potential.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and backwardation suggest continued uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions and low historical returns pressure MP downward.

Potential Outcomes: 40% slow growth; 35% decline due to volatility; 25% sideways movement.

Trading Oracle: Consider short-term debit spreads targeting mid-2025, capturing high implied volatility (~60%). Buy $25 calls, sell $30 calls. Leverage backwardation for favorable conditions.

February 19, 2025

MP Materials Forecast

MP MP Materials

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Assets that tend to move strongly with MP

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DB Deutsche (0.83)

DAVE Dave (0.82)

DE Deere (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MP

EA Electronic Arts (0.0)

PHM PulteGroup (-0.0)

ATI Allegheny (-0.01)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (0.01)

HPQ HP (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MP

VSAT Viasat (-0.7)

NTLA Intellia Therapeutics (-0.71)

OGN Organon (-0.71)

BIIB Biogen (-0.73)

CAL Caleres (-0.75)

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