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MP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Strong demand in EV and tech sectors and domestic production lift expectations, but volatility remains high, offering growth potential.



Bearish Case: High volatility and historical underperformance suggest ongoing challenges with rare earth supply chains and global market dependencies affecting prices negatively.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Demand-driven recovery: 35%.

2. Sideways trend with volatility: 33%.

3. Decline from macro pressures: 32%.



Trading Oracle: Considering MP’s high volatility and current mean-reverting price action, deploy Bearish Long Volatility. This leverages uncertainty while hedging against further downturns.


April 20, 2025


MP Materials Forecast

MP        MP Materials

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MP


V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (0.86)


VNET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNET  VNET (0.85)


OUNZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUNZ  VanEck Merk Gold (0.84)


OGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGE  Oge Energy (0.84)


DAVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAVE  Dave (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MP


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (0.0)


PBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBA  Pembina Pipeline (-0.0)


GKOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GKOS  Glaukos (0.02)


IMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMO  Imperial Oil (0.02)


H Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   H  Hyatt Hotels (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MP


KURA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KURA  Kura Oncology (-0.8)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (-0.8)


RCKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCKT  Rocket Pharmaceuticals (-0.82)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (-0.83)


NTLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTLA  Intellia Therapeutics (-0.83)







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