MP Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: MP Materials could benefit from increased demand for rare earths, especially with anticipated growth in EV and renewable tech sectors. Current high implied volatility suggests a significant price movement is possible.




Bearish Case: Declining historical returns and high market volatility raise concerns about MP's price stability. Ongoing geopolitical risks may hinder growth, making downside pressure likely in the near term.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% probability of recovery to $20 driven by sector demand.
  • 40% probability of sideways movement as market digests recent trends.
  • 30% probability of further decline below $15 due to macroeconomic pressures.




Trading Oracle: Consider utilizing a short volatility strategy by initiating credit spreads at the $17.50 strike, leveraging high implied volatility for market odds of profit. This approach aligns well with the current bearish sentiment and offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for the next few months.



December 20, 2024


MP Materials Forecast

MP        MP Materials











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MP



IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (0.8)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (0.72)


TWLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWLO  Twilio (0.71)


TGNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGNA  TEGNA (0.69)


UROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UROY  Uranium Royalty (0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MP



MPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPW  Medical Properties (0.0)


ISRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ISRG  Intuitive Surgical (0.0)


HMY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMY  Harmony Gold Mining (0.0)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.0)


XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MP



TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.51)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.52)


QRVO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QRVO  Qorvo (-0.55)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.6)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (-0.65)









Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with MP


 Ask any question about MP!