MP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MP's strategic positioning in rare earths, rising EV demand, and flat volatility surface suggest potential upside. Optimism in social media supports this view Helium.




Bearish Case: High historical volatility and geopolitical risks may pressure MP, especially with low demand visibility. Past underperformance and negative price reactions reinforce this HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes: 30% growth and demand recovery; 40% continued flat trading; 30% risk of decline due to macro pressures. Likely volatility sustains uncertainty.




Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads around $20 strikes, leveraging moderate volatility for favorable risk:reward. Target mid-2025, capitalizing on potential EV sector growth and geopolitical developments.



January 15, 2025


MP Materials Forecast

MP        MP Materials











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MP



OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.78)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.75)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (0.73)


DE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DE  Deere (0.73)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MP



TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (0.0)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (-0.01)


ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (0.01)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (-0.02)


BHP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHP  BHP Group Limited (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MP



TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.6)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.64)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.65)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.65)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.72)









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