RVLV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Historical celebrity endorsements and expansions into tech enhance Revolve's brand and revenue streams, likely aiding a short-term price rebound.


Bearish Case: Persistent macroeconomic challenges and current flat term structure suggest continued pressure on discretionary spending, likely leading to further price declines short-term.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Macro challenges hurt demand (55%).

2. Economic recovery boosts discretionary spending (35%).

3. Mixed signals result in flat price movement (10%).


Trading Oracle: Focus on short-term credit spreads for August 16 expiry. Sell 20.00 Call, buy 22.50 Call, leveraging high implied volatility. Favor short volatility to capitalize on mean reversion trends. High reward:risk and alignment with current flat term structure suggest a significant edge.


July 23, 2024










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ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.75)


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LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.45)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RVLV



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.45)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.75)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RVLV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.75)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.45)





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