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OPI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: OPI's merger with Diversified Healthcare Trust could enhance asset diversity, stabilizing revenue and supporting recovery in a shifting real estate market.



Bearish Case: High vacancies, debt concerns, and unfavorable market trends suggest further declines. Persistent negative returns and skepticism amplify downside risk for OPI.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Merger approval boosts value (30%);

2) High vacancies deteriorate stock (40%);

3) Asset sales improve liquidity (20%);

4) Financial instability continues (10%).



Trading Oracle: Sell March credit spreads (OPI 1.00 P/1.50 P) leveraging high implied vol and flat price outlook. Prioritize downside protection as downside risks dominate. Align with near-term bearish sentiment and market skepticism.


January 14, 2025


Office Properties Income Forecast

OPI        Office Properties Income

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