OXM Forecast


Bullish Case: The upcoming earnings report may exceed expectations as analysts predict a recovery in consumer demand, potentially leading to a price rebound above $105. Historical returns suggest a favorable outlook for periods over 1-2 years.


Bearish Case: Continued inflationary pressures and weak sales data could trigger a further drop, with potential downside risks highlighted by high implied volatility in the options market, possibly pushing prices below $95.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of earnings beat, driving OXM above $105.

2. 30% chance of in-line results, causing minimal movement.

3. 30% chance of earnings miss, pushing prices further down to $92-94.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: Buy OXM 105 calls, sell OXM 110 calls expiring in early September to capitalize on potential post-earnings gains. The high implied volatility suggests an opportunity for profit from price movement, targeting a high reward-to-risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


Oxford Industries Forecast

OXM      Oxford Industries











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OXM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.34)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OXM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.34)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OXM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.34)





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