RS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Relying on historical price returns and RS's strong fundamentals, the likelihood of a continued uptrend is high. Implied volatility and term structure support a stable or upward price trajectory.


Bearish Case: Potential geopolitical tensions or market corrections could induce higher-than-expected volatility, leading to short-term declines. Mean-reverting historical returns indicate possible near-term pullback.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued uptrend (40%) due to historical strength.

2. Short-term volatility (30%) amid market fluctuations.

3. Decline (20%) on broader economic concerns.

4. Flat performance (10%) driven by mixed market signals.


Trading Oracle: Best trade: Bullish debit spreads expiring mid-term. Buy $300 call, sell $310 call (Sept expiration). High positive edge, favorable risk:reward. Capitalize on stable/potentially rising volatility with defined risk.


July 14, 2024


Reliance Steel & Aluminum Forecast

RS      Reliance Steel & Aluminum











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