Bullish Case: SR at $76.86 is defended by Helium's price-density mass centered at $75-$80 (pdf peak ~0.158 at $80) and the AI +1.34% drift. Rate-case execution, the pure-play gas utility rerating, 1.5x book, and Tennessee acquisition EPS accretion by 2027 support a grind back to $80-$85 if ATM IV (~21-24%) stays contained and deep-put IV extremes prove illiquidity noise, as they have all year.

Bearish Case: Put volume ran 886% above calls and the term structure is backwardated — the market is hedging near-term downside into Q3 earnings (Nov). Deep OTM put IVs (60-70P, 66-137%) remain rich, SPY's surface shows a persistent left-tail, and SR is down 4.6% YoY with a recent Q3 miss narrative. A break of $75 would validate the skew and open $70.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Range $73-$80 (45%): flat 90-day tape, low ATM IV, Helium density peak at $80; falsified by a close outside the band.
2. Mild rally $80-$85 (20%): Alabama/Mississippi rate-case outcomes and guidance reaffirmation; falsified if 80C IV stays >24% while spot stalls.
3. Decline $68-$73 (22%): Q3 print + backwardation + put skew; falsified if 70-75P IV compresses with SR holding $76.
4. Sharp selloff <$68 (8%): SPY left-tail realizes; watch SPY 553-667 strike IV.
5. Breakout >$85 (5%): M&A/upgrade catalyst — none currently evidenced.

September 29, 2026