STZ Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: STZ's strong Modelo and Corona sales, coupled with strategic pricing, provide upside potential amidst moderate volatilities. Continued growth in the non-alcoholic segment adds optimism.




Bearish Case: Persistent inflation concerns and demand weakness in wine/spirits may challenge margins. Backwardation in term structure suggests potential near-term downside due to volatility.




Potential Outcomes:

1) Beer sales drive growth (50%) amid brand strength.

2) Inflation pressures margins (30%) given current trends.

3) Wine/spirits remain weak (15%).

4) External shocks create volatility (5%).




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying STZ 06/20/2025 $185 calls and selling $195 calls. Capitalize on declining implied volatility in the current backwardation, targeting near-term recovery and beer sales strength. Focus on 30-60 day expiration for optimal risk-reward.



February 21, 2025


Constellation Brands Forecast

STZ        Constellation Brands











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