CAG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Conagra's solid dividend yield, historical mean-reversion, and institutional accumulation provide upside potential. Despite recent challenges, the company's ability to manage expenses and optimize efficiency suggests near-term stability.


Bearish Case: Conagra faces sales declines from shifting consumer preferences and rising adoption of weight loss drugs. Recent lawsuits and insider selling further dampen sentiment, suggesting downside pressure.


Potential Outcomes: CAG Stock: 60% sales decline, 30% margins improve. EPS beat (20%) or miss (50%). Quarterly results impact stock significantly.


Trading Oracle: Sell CAG July $30/$32 OTM call credit spreads, expiring ~37 days. Leveraging recent flat term structure and higher implied volatility. Probability of profit: 88%. Risk-Reward: 1-to-18%, Illiquid premium collection amid broader bearish trend.


July 10, 2024


Conagra Brands Forecast

CAG      Conagra Brands











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.15)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAG



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.15)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.15)





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