USO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: USO's historical data shows occasional strong rebounds. Short-term stability in the term structure and Helium's slightly higher implied volatility provide an opportunity for bullish mean reversion trades.


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action with negative medium-term performance and Helium's higher IV forecast suggests potential overpricing. Historical returns surface indicates low likelihood of sustained upward momentum.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued mean reversion higher (~30% chance).

2) Resume longer-term downtrend (~50% chance).

3) Sideways choppy price action (~20% chance). Short-term stability with significant long-term uncertainty.


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May 22, 2024


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO      United States Commodity Funds












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