USO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: USO's historical mean reversion with steady price over recent months suggests potential upside, slightly supported by Helium's higher implied volatility forecast.


Bearish Case: The small dip in USO's price over the past three months amid flat historical returns and shifting energy trends towards renewables underscores a bearish outlook.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued range-bound action (55%).

2) Short-term volatile move downward (30%).

3) Short-term rebound (15%). Based on current moderate IV and flat historical returns.


Trading Oracle: Trade a bearish short volatility strategy: Sell the $78.0 call and buy two $80.0 calls expiring in ~2 days. With high Helium model odds of profit (69%) and a favorable risk-reward ratio, expect gains from slight price decline and range-bound action.


July 23, 2024


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO      United States Commodity Funds











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO



BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.98)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.97)


VDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VDE  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (0.84)


ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.83)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO



CAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAG  Conagra Brands (0.0)


ZION Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZION  Zions Bancorporation N.A (-0.0)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (-0.0)


IAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Regional Banks (0.0)


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO



CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.73)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.73)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (-0.75)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.83)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.93)


USO News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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