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TAL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: TAL's shift to digital education, paired with high demand, indicates potential for market capture and revenue growth, supporting a positive outlook.



Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and high market volatility suggest challenges in maintaining profitability, potentially causing further stock depreciation.



Potential Outcomes: - 60% chance digital expansion boosts TAL’s market share. - 30% risk of regulatory hurdles impacting growth. - 10% chance increased competition limits gains.



Trading Oracle:
Implement a Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Sell $13.0 puts and buy $12.0 puts with a positive edge, leveraging high implied volatility. This exploits potential appreciation as TAL pivots towards digital offerings, with an 81% market odds of profit (37% potential return). Risks are mitigated with higher certainty from volatility context.


March 23, 2025


TAL Education Forecast

TAL        TAL Education

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TAL


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.0)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (0.0)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.0)


SATS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SATS  EchoStar (-0.0)


TSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSAT  Telesat Corp (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TAL


MANU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MANU  Manchester United Plc. (-0.59)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (-0.61)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.62)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.69)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.7)







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