TAL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With TAL trading 48.6% higher than two months ago, coupled with increased digital education demand and favorable implied volatility trends, the bullish momentum appears robust.




Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges in China and market saturation pose significant risks. Despite recent price gains, high implied volatility suggests potential instability.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Growth from digital education, capturing market share (60%).
  2. Regulatory pressures hurting growth (30%).
  3. Market competition limiting upside (10%).




Trading Oracle: Execute bullish long volatility debit spreads. Buy $15.0 call, sell $16.0 call expiring in ~35 days. Strong upside potential and positive edge, leveraging favorable implied volatility skew. High probability of profit and 229% potential return. Target near-term resurgence in price to capture volatility edge.



February 16, 2025


TAL Education Forecast

TAL        TAL Education











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