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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: UDOW shows strong bullish potential due to higher implied volatility forecasts (3% above market), indicating upcoming price movements. Historical data suggests a 60% chance of positive returns in the near term as market sentiment remains resilient.



Bearish Case: Conversely, an abundance of low strike options with elevated implied volatility indicates bearish market volatility risks. A flat term structure may lead to stagnant price action, suggesting potential downward pressure if market conditions change.



Potential Outcomes:

1) UDOW increases to $105 (40%);

2) Price remains stable around $102 (45%);

3) Decline to $95 (15%). These outcomes reflect current volatility trends and market participant behavior.



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October 20, 2024


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