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Foreign Affairs Most Recent Articles

China Is Not Ten Feet Tall

Politics

China, the story goes, is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States. China has become the largest engine of global economic growth, the largest trading nation, and the largest destination for foreign investment. It has locked in major trade and investment deals in Asia and Europe and is using the Belt and Road Initiative—the largest development project of the twenty-first century—to win greater influence in every corner of the world. It is exporting surveillance tools, embedding technology in 5G communications networks, and using cyber-capabilities to both steal sensitive information and shape political discourse overseas. It is converting economic and political weight into military might, using civil-military fusion to develop cutting-edge capabilities and bullying its neighbors, including U.S. allies and partners such as Australia, India, and Taiwan. And at home, it is ruthlessly cracking down everywhere from Hong Kong to Xinjiang, with little concern about criticism from the United States and other democratic governments.
Foreign Affairs     Mar 02, 2021

India’s Farmers Will Benefit From Reforms

Politics

In September 2020, India’s Parliament passed three bills designed to change the way the country bought and sold agricultural goods. With its commanding majority in the legislature, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) forced the bills through with little discussion. Such haste and unilateralism are not unusual for the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which sought little input before eliminating all high-denomination cash bills in 2016, for example, or rushing a year later to implement a new goods and services tax. But while those earlier policies caused hardship and sparked some minor protests, the consequences of the farm bills are of another order altogether.
Foreign Affairs     Mar 02, 2021

Colossus Constrained

Politics

U.S. President Joe Biden has ambitious goals both at home and abroad. On the home front, he promises to “build back better” through enormous investments in COVID-19 pandemic recovery, health care, education, infrastructure, and green technology. Beyond U.S. shores, he is scrapping former President Donald Trump’s “America first” approach to statecraft and returning the United States to the global stage: “America” he says, “is back . . . ready to lead the world, not retreat from it.”
Foreign Affairs     Mar 02, 2021

Biden’s Narrow Window of Opportunity on Iran

Politics

Former President Donald Trump’s Iran policy was an abject failure, applying maximum pressure to minimal benefit. The United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and ratcheted up sanctions on Tehran. But far from containing Iran, these actions aggravated the country’s leaders and emboldened them to expand their nuclear enrichment activities. The result was greater regional volatility and a heightened risk of direct conflict between Washington and Tehran.
Foreign Affairs     Mar 01, 2021

China Must Stop Hiding Its Vaccine Data

Politics

In a parable in the Han dynasty philosophical text The Huainanzi, a fool goes to the market to buy a pair of shoes. Finding the shoes too small, he cuts off his toes rather than admit that the shoes don’t fit. China is doing a similar thing with its COVID-19 vaccines, which reportedly did not perform as well in clinical trials as their Western competitors. Fearing embarrassment, Chinese vaccine makers are cherry-picking the data rather than publishing the results in full.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 25, 2021

Japan Is the New Leader of Asia’s Liberal Order

Politics

Over the last decade, and especially over the last four years, Japan has emerged as a quiet leader in the Indo-Pacific. While the United States abandoned its allies and succumbed to illiberal populism under President Donald Trump, Japan remained a stalwart of the liberal, rules-based international order. It deepened ties with its neighbors, expanded multilateral initiatives, and set the regional agenda on trade and digital governance, among other issues. Through a combination of good timing, clear-eyed leadership, and innovative domestic reform, the island nation has proved not only a reliable partner to the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific but an architect of the region’s emerging liberal order.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 24, 2021

The Real Regional Problem With the Iran Deal

Politics

As U.S. President Joe Biden explores returning to the Iran nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—two of only three countries in the world that opposed the agreement—insist that they must be included in future negotiations over its fate. Their inclusion, representatives of the two countries argue, would rectify the agreement’s supposed flaw: its failure to rein in Tehran’s regional policies.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 23, 2021

Stability in the Middle East Requires More Than a Deal With Iran

Politics

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden inherits a familiar portfolio of issues relating to Iran: the country has an advancing nuclear program, a ballistic missile arsenal, and a regional policy of supporting proxy groups. The first of these concerns will be the most pressing for the new administration to address: ever since May 2018, when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and began increasing sanctions pressure on Tehran, the Iranian government has accelerated its nuclear development, reducing its breakout time—the window within which it could leap to producing a weapon—from one year to a number of months.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 21, 2021

The Diplomat as Gardener

Politics

In July 1988, during his final year as secretary of state, George Shultz embarked on an eight-country, three-week tour of Asia. No crisis or urgent diplomatic objective had spurred the trip—unthinkably long by today’s standards. With the Soviet Union in decline and China focused inward, the United States’ global position was strong. But Shultz had a deep commitment to what he called “tending the diplomatic garden.” I was a young Foreign Service officer accompanying Shultz. Watching the way he treated his hosts in each capital city was a powerful lesson in American diplomacy and why it matters.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 19, 2021

America’s Middle East Policy Is Outdated and Dangerous

Politics

In his 1980 State of the Union address, which came in the wake of the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, U.S. President Jimmy Carter described in grave terms the risks of losing access to Middle Eastern oil. “An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America,” he said. “Such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.” That pledge became known as the Carter Doctrine, and it has remained a defining feature of U.S. Middle East policy ever since.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 19, 2021

A Sharper, Shrewder U.S. Policy for Chinese Tech Firms

Tech

U.S. President Joe Biden has inherited from his predecessor, Donald Trump, a slew of flawed executive orders that sought either to ban or to limit the activities of Chinese technology firms in the United States. Trump attempted to ban the popular social media app TikTok in August 2020, and he tried to restrict the operations of companies such as WeChat, Alipay, and Huawei in U.S. markets. In the name of safeguarding national security, these measures would have created an American Cyber Grand Canyon to rival China’s Great Firewall, radically curbing the freedom of Americans to navigate the Internet and inhibiting competition in the technology sector.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 18, 2021

Power Shift in Congo

Politics

It is never easy for the ship of state to navigate turbulent waters when two captains are battling for the helm, yet that is the fate that befell the Democratic Republic of the Congo for two years. In December 2018, as the country’s president, Joseph Kabila, wrapped up his 18 years in power, a disputed election led to an awkward power-sharing arrangement: Félix Tshisekedi, the leader of the oldest opposition party, succeeded Kabila as president, but Kabila’s allies gained an overwhelming majority in the country’s powerful parliament. Tshisekedi was relegated to the role of a symbolic president, unable to press forward on a popular reform agenda. Meanwhile, pro-Kabila elements controlled enough power to protect the former president’s interests.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 17, 2021

Russia Will Never See the United States the Same Way Again

Politics

January saw violent protests in both Washington and Moscow. Supporters of then U.S. President Donald Trump stormed the United States Capitol ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, and in Russia, opponents of President Vladimir Putin demonstrated against the imprisonment of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Chaos, anger, and arrests: the imagery, even the language, was similar—the Kremlin media routinely describe protests as “attempted insurrections”—but beyond these superficial parallels, the equivalence ends. The Russian protesters were trying to establish the rule of law; the Americans to overthrow it.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 16, 2021

The Other Carter Doctrine

Politics

During the 1980 U.S. presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan often joked that Jimmy Carter came to him in a dream and asked him why he wanted his job. “I told him I didn’t want his job,” Reagan quipped. “I want to be president.”
Foreign Affairs     Feb 16, 2021

Can America Restore Its Credibility in Asia?

Politics

For Biden, there are at least four major plays—on economics, infrastructure, alliances, and defense—that can help restore confidence in the United States’ commitment and competence in the Indo-Pacific.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 13, 2021

Against Great Power Competition

Politics

In his first days in office, U.S. President Joe Biden has worked to signal a clean break with his predecessor. He rejoined the Paris climate accord, offered to extend the New START nuclear weapons treaty, and reversed the “Mexico City” policy curtailing overseas abortion access. His appointees have repeatedly emphasized that the administration will prioritize diplomacy and multilateralism over former President Donald Trump’s “America first” nationalism.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 12, 2021

The Next Phase of U.S.-Chinese Relations

Politics

Navigating the United States’relationship with China will be the most consequential item on the Biden administration's foreign policy agenda. Over the past four years, the Trump administration has escalated the competition with Beijing on multiple fronts, buoyed by a growing bipartisan consensus in favor of tougher policy. How will the next four years shape the future of U.S.-Chinese relations? Foreign Affairs Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan meets former Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd to discuss his recent article, “Short of War:How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Confrontation From Ending in Calamity.” Further reading from this discussion: “Beware the Guns of August—in Asia” by Kevin Rudd “The Coming Post-COVID Anarchy” by Kevin Rudd
Foreign Affairs     Feb 12, 2021

When Allies Go Nuclear

Politics

The year is 2030. Seismic monitors have just detected an unforeseen underground atomic explosion, signaling that yet another country has joined the growing club of nuclear-armed states. There are now 20 such countries, more than double the number in 2021. To the surprise of many, the proliferation has come not from rogue states bent on committing nuclear blackmail but from a group of countries usually seen as cautious and rule abiding: U.S. allies. Even though they had forsworn acquiring nuclear capabilities decades earlier when they signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), these allies changed their minds and withdrew from the agreement, a move that triggered yet more defections as nations across the world raced to acquire the bomb. And so the number of nuclear decision-makers multiplied, raising the odds of a terrifying possibility: that one of these powerful weapons might go off.
Foreign Affairs     Feb 12, 2021