How to Interpret Our Models

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Price Cone

The future price cone means the model thinks there is a 80% chance the price will land within the bounds of the cone. Since Helium's forecasts are based on past data, you should not interpret them literally, because the future does not always behave like the past. Helium's models are just estimates.

Percent Correct (up or down)

This is the percent of the time our models predicted the correct direction of the price (either up or down) over the last 150 days.

Chance of False Correlation

We run simulations to estimate the % chance that a random model (just guessing) would outperform our given model over the last 150 days. Smaller means more accurate.

Expected Forecast Error

Our models predict how much prediction error (absolute difference between predicted price and actual price) they expect to have in the future based on past model performance.

Tip: Left click and drag charts to zoom in. Right click to zoom back out.

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* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.