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* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.
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Future Price Cone
The future price cone means the model thinks there is a 80% chance the price will land within the bounds of the cone. A blue cone is neutral, a green cone is bullish, and a red cone is bearish.
Model Correlation
Higher (closer to 1) means a more accurate model and lower (closer to -1) means a less accurate model. This is the Spearman Correlation between model predicted percent change and actual percent change calculated over the last 150 days.
Percent Correct (up or down)
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* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.
Helium Summary:
Following Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel, the US, along with the UK and the European Union, announced new stringent sanctions targeting Iran’s military capabilities, particularly its drone and missile programs [PBS][PBS][Al Monitor]. These sanctions are a coordinated effort to hold Iran accountable and to deter future aggression, amidst concerns about escalating regional tensions [Breitbart][PBS]. Additionally, the sanctions aim to degrade Iran’s ability to support proxy wars in the Middle East [Just the News][Just the News].
April 20, 2024
Evidence
US, UK, and the EU's coordination highlights a significant diplomatic maneuver aimed at pressuring Iran to curtail its military aggressions [Just the News].
Iran's economic sector closely tied to its military capabilities may face turmoil, affecting global markets focused on the Middle East [Just the News].
Perspectives
Perspective 1 Name
US Government's Analysis: Strong sanctions as a deterrent against Iran's aggression [Al Monitor]
Most sources shown, such as AP and Reuters, generally maintain a professional tone with minimal bias.
However, the selection of quoted officials mostly from the US or its allies could imply a western bias.
There is less representation from Iranian officials or allied perspectives which might provide a more balanced view.
Social Media Perspectives
The social media posts reflect a spectrum of views and emotions about the dynamic and escalating situation involving the U.S., its allies, and Iran’s imposition of sanctions.
Many users express strong opinions about the roles of various nations, with particular focus on the U.S. and Iran.
Some social media posts show support for Israel and condemnation of Iran, emphasizing security for Israel and the need for clear messaging to Iran regarding its actions.
Others criticize the U.S. for its involvement and urge an end to arming Israel, highlighting concerns over human rights and geopolitical stability.
Overall, sentiments are deeply polarized, reflecting a complex web of alliances, grievances, and geopolitical strategies, as users respond to unfolding international relations and military actions.
Context
Existing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East often exacerbate reactions to sanctions. The lack of direct communication between the principal parties, US and Iran, increases the likelihood of misinterpretations and escalation.
Takeaway
Unified international sanctions are crucial, as they symbolically represent global condemnation and can exert pressure that impacts a country's military agenda, without immediate warfare.
Potential Outcomes
Increase in diplomatic tensions or indirect conflicts through proxies, Probability: 60%, as Iran could increase its support to allied militias if direct military response is limited.
Economic hardship in Iran due to sanctions cutting off crucial military exports, Probability: 75%, noting that previous sanctions have already hit the Iranian economy hard.
* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy
of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions,
you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.