Ukraine's missile strikes escalate conflict and prompt Russian nuclear threats 


Source: https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/11/spies-hack-wi-fi-networks-in-far-off-land-to-launch-attack-on-target-next-door/
Source: https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/11/spies-hack-wi-fi-networks-in-far-off-land-to-launch-attack-on-target-next-door/

Helium Summary: In November 2024, Ukraine launched U.S.-made long-range missiles, ATACMS, into Russian territory, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict.

This action followed President Biden's approval for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia, prompting Russia's President Putin to revise his nuclear doctrine.

This doctrine now states that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power could trigger a nuclear response, thereby raising tensions globally.

Recent attacks from Russia included the use of the Oreshnik missile on Dnipro, framing the situation as a response to Ukrainian aggression.

Both Western and Russian officials express concerns over the potential for a larger conflict, with NATO and Ukraine preparing for further military discussions in light of these developments .


November 26, 2024




Evidence

Ukraine has fired U.S.-supplied long-range missiles into Russia for the first time, prompting Russia to alter its nuclear doctrine, framing a conventional attack with support from a nuclear power as a 'joint attack' .

Putin's assertion that conventional strikes could meet a nuclear response marks a significant shift in military posture, raising concerns among Western officials about escalating a regional conflict into a broader war .



Perspectives

Western Governments


Western officials express deep concern over Russia's new nuclear doctrine and the potential global escalation due to Ukraine's strike capabilities. They perceive these actions as exacerbating an already critical situation .

Russian Government


From Russia's perspective, the actions from Ukraine, supported by the West, are viewed as direct provocations that justify their military responses, including the adjustment of nuclear threats. Putin's rhetoric emphasizes a defensive posture against perceived Western aggression .

Ukrainian Leadership


Ukraine views its missile strikes as necessary responses to ongoing Russian aggression. President Zelenskyy’s government emphasizes the need for increased air defense and support from Western allies, framing their actions within a narrative of self-defense and sovereignty .



Q&A

What are the implications of Ukraine's use of U.S. long-range missiles?

Ukraine's missile strikes could provoke further military responses from Russia, particularly given its revised nuclear doctrine emphasizing a potential nuclear response to conventional attacks supported by nuclear states.




Narratives + Biases (?)


The narratives surrounding these developments mainly reflect a West versus Russia dynamic, emphasizing the escalation of military actions and the associated nuclear threats.

Sources like The Independent and Guardian present a perspective that suggests urgency and calls for Western unity against Russian aggression . Conversely, some analysis, particularly from Russian media, frames these responses as necessary defenses against Western provocation . The varying tones highlight a dichotomy between a narrative of aggression from the West versus a defensive posture from Russia, suggesting underlying ideological biases influenced by national interests.

Additionally, the framing of missile attacks as testing grounds for Western weapons raises questions about the implications of arms support for Ukraine .



Context


This escalation occurs in a backdrop of ongoing conflict lasting nearly three years, with fluctuating military tactics from both sidesβ€”Ukraine's increasing reliance on Western military technology and Russia's commitment to demonstrate military capabilities through new missile systems.



Takeaway


This conflict illustrates the precarious nature of modern warfare, where actions from one party can elicit nuclear responses, radically shifting security paradigms globally.



Potential Outcomes

1st Potential Outcome: Heightened military engagement between NATO and Russia, leading to a possible global conflict (30% probability).

2nd Potential Outcome: Diplomatic negotiations reduce tensions while establishing new arms control agreements (50% probability).





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