AA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Alcoa's expansion in the low-carbon aluminum market and recent positive earnings surprise provide strong upside potential. Helium data shows long-term bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Labor disputes, environmental issues, and recent dip in aluminum prices pose significant risks. Implied volatility remains high, indicating market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued aerospace market growth (60%)

2) Further labor disputes impact operations negatively (30%)

3) Improvements in alumina segment profitability (50%)

4) Environmental fines (40%)


Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread. Buy AA $39.0 calls and sell $39.5 calls expiring in 4 days. Leverage favorable implied volatility difference. High probability of profit with positive edge. Tight risk control with significant upside.


July 16, 2024


Alcoa Forecast

AA      Alcoa











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LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.61)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.61)





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