VFC Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: VFC's strong brand portfolio and strategic initiatives could drive recovery. High call option volume suggests optimism, while The North Face's performance bolsters growth prospects.




Bearish Case: Persistent operational challenges, declining brand appeal like Vans, and high implied volatility reflect uncertainty. High debt levels and macroeconomic pressures could further strain VFC.




Potential Outcomes: VFC stabilizes with mean reversion (50%), operational improvements boost price (30%), or further declines from competitive pressure (20%). Mean-reverting tendencies historically support these probabilities.




Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread: Buy VFC Feb 14, 2025 $25 calls, sell $27.50 calls, leveraging mean reversion and high implied volatility for potential profit. Moderate expiration exploits current optimism, aiming for a tactical edge in a recovering sentiment environment.



February 08, 2025


VF Forecast

VFC        VF











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NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (0.91)


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VFC



IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.0)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (-0.01)


RLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RLX  RLX Technology (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VFC



TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (-0.86)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (-0.89)


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (-0.89)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.9)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.92)









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