LI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Robust June deliveries and plans for expanding supercharging infrastructure underscore demand resilience and operational capability. With Helium predicted volatility 5% above market, optimists see undervaluation here.


Bearish Case: High competition and compressing margins from price wars are pressing concerns. Legal issues and intense competition with firms like BYD potentially harm short-term performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued delivery growth, boosting market share (60%).

2. Margin compression from price wars (40%).

3. Positive investor sentiment driving short-term price spikes (30%).


Trading Oracle: Opt for a 7-day bullish short volatility credit spread by selling $19.5 puts and buying $18.5 puts. This tactical spread capitalizes on short-term bullish risk and current low trading volumes, offering a 64% market odds of profit with positive Helium edge.


July 20, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.75)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.75)





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