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AAL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AAL's implied volatility is stable, signaling reduced uncertainty. Historically mean-reverting price action suggests potential upside with travel demand resurgence.



Bearish Case: High operational costs and potential labor disputes may weigh on profitability. AAL's price decline over five years shows structural challenges.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful demand rebound boosts stock 40%.

2. Operational costs rise, stock declines 35%.

3. Continued stability, stock fluctuates around current level 25%.



Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread, buying AAL March $17 calls and selling $18 calls. Target short-term volatility ahead of earnings, leveraging stable implied volatility with a high reward:risk ratio. Expected 2-4 week hold for optimal return.


February 19, 2025


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AAL        American Airlines

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